Smart Taxes Network member and leading property economist Ronan Lyons has asked if the numbers add up and has done his own calculations in relation to “long term economic value”. A summary of his conclusion is below and his excellent post can be read in its entirety here.
“In short, even if you think values for Irish land and foreign property have levelled off, estimating the true value of the €24bn in commercial and residential developments in Ireland does not translate into a straightforward mark-up of 15%. In fact, if you believe (a) that 6% is a healthy average yield for Irish property (as NAMA itself does), and (b) that it’s likely rents will fall a further 20% as the market handles recent overconstruction, the adjustment from current market value should be downwards by 10% to about €44bn, and not upwards to €54bn.
Does anyone know if there’s a 1% commission on saving the State €10bn?!”
